REGULAR REPORTS & SURVEYS
As well as responding to topics of importance through major reports and Short Papers, the Research Programme produces a number of regular publications. These are an important and frequently-referenced output of the Research Programme and currently include these four publications during the year:
UK Consensus Forecasts (quarterly)
This long-running survey was established in 1999, originally providing forecasts of All Property annual rental and capital value growth and total returns for the current and following two years. Some of the names of the initial 21 contributors have been consigned to history:
Argyll Property Asset Managers, Baring, Houston & Saunders, Cluttons Daniel Smith, Colliers Erdman Lewis, DTZ Debenham Thorpe, Henderson Investors, Norwich Union Investment Management, Prudential Portfolio Managers Richard Ellis St Quintin and Standard Life Investments to name but a few.
The current survey invites forecasts at the All Property and individual sector level for up to seven sub-markets, comprising Office, Industrial, Standard Retail, Shopping Centres, Retail Warehouses plus the two Central London office markets of the West End & City. Annual rental and capital value growth and total return projections collected for periods up to five years, together with five-year annualised averages for each sector.
Data is aggregated and all contributor averages reported, as well as attributed by contributor type where five or more forecasts have been received. On average, Property Advisors/Consultants tend to be more optimistic than Fund/Investment Managers/Principals.
Recent years’ results have been characterised by a distinct lack of consensus within various markets over most time periods, with shocks such as the outcome of the EU referendum vote in 2016 exacerbating the considerable range of outlook from individual participants.
To qualify for inclusion, all forecast must be generated within 12 weeks of the survey date, falling in mid-February, May, August and November each year. Results are published on the last Friday of the survey month, with the exception of the August survey, which is issued on the first Friday of September.
European Prime Office Rents Consensus Forecasts (half-yearly)
Dating back to 2006, this twice-yearly survey collates prime office rental values and annual growth rate forecasts over three years for up to 30 locations across Europe – from Dublin to Moscow and many points in between. Two cities warrant sub-market data collection – Paris (CBD and La Défense) and London (City and West End) – whilst the frequency of reportage of rents in Moscow and Athens can be sporadic, due to the requirement for a minimum of five sets of forecasts in order that data may be aggregated and analysed.
Adopting preceding end-year actual prime rents, weighted average growth rate forecasts are imputed for the three following years, together with a three yearly average. Values are reported in euros or local currency, as appropriate.
Data is collected over a period of three weeks, with results published on the second Friday of May and November each year. To qualify for inclusion, forecasts must be generated within a six-month period preceding the survey date (ordinarily some two and a half weeks prior to the publication date).
The Size and Structure of the UK Commercial Property Market Year-end Updates (annual)
Following a major review in 2013 of the original research (conducted in 2005), updated statistics are presented on an annual basis, covering the size of the UK property market by reference to capital value, floor space, rental value, rental income and yield statistics. Results are presented by sector, geography and type of investor, whilst further segmentation provides greater detail of such aspects as investment by overseas entities, as well as a consideration of non-traditional property types, including residential, hotels and healthcare. Changes in the market structure and investor holdings (UK and overseas) are analysed over time.
Residential Investment Attitudes and Intentions Survey (annual)
In 2012 the IPF undertook research to inform its response to the UK Minister for Housing and Local Government’s call for evidence of how to encourage greater investment in privately rented property. This resulted in the first UK Residential Property: Institutional Attitudes and Investment Survey. Repeated yearly since then, this research has built a valuable record of increasing interest from and commitment by institutional and large-scale real estate investors to the UK residential market.
Interviews with survey participants provide additional insights into topical issues exercising investors, including most recently such challenges as Brexit, imminent changes in capital gains tax relief for overseas investors and potential reforms to the private rented sector – for example the introduction of an inflation cap on rent rises, three-year tenancies and new consumer rights.
Should you or your organisation be interested in contributing to any of the above research, please email Research Director, Pam Craddock, at: [email protected].