REGULAR REPORTS & SURVEYS
Some of the most significant outputs from the Research Programme are the Consensus Forecasts. These unique reports are widely used and referenced in the industry.
UK Consensus ForecastsQuarterly Publication Dates 2024:
Winter 2023/24 Friday 8 March
Spring 2024 Wednesday 29 May
Summer 2024 Friday 6 September
Autumn 2024 Wednesday 27 November
European Prime Office Rents Consensus ForecastsPublication dates 2024:
H1 2024 Wednesday 15 May
H2 2024 Wednesday 13 November
UK Consensus Forecasts (quarterly)
This long-running survey was established in 1999, originally providing forecasts of All Property annual rental and capital value growth and total returns for the current and following two years. Some of the names of the initial 21 contributors have been consigned to history:
Argyll Property Asset Managers, Baring, Houston & Saunders, Cluttons Daniel Smith, Colliers Erdman Lewis, DTZ Debenham Thorpe, Henderson Investors, Norwich Union Investment Management, Prudential Portfolio Managers, Richard Ellis, St Quintin and Standard Life Investments to name but a few.
The current survey invites forecasts at the All Property and individual sector level for up to seven sub-markets, comprising Office, Industrial, Standard Retail, Shopping Centres, Retail Warehouses plus the two Central London office markets of the West End & City. Annual rental and capital value growth and total return projections collected for periods up to five years, together with five-year annualised averages for each sector.
Data is aggregated and all contributor averages reported, as well as attributed by contributor type where five or more forecasts have been received. On average, Property Advisors/Consultants tend to be more optimistic than Fund/Investment Managers/Principals.
To qualify for inclusion, all forecast must be generated within 12 weeks of the survey date, falling in mid-February, May, August and November each year.
European Prime Office Rents Consensus Forecasts (half-yearly)
Dating back to 2006, this twice-yearly survey collates prime office rental values and annual growth rate forecasts over three years for up to 30 locations across Europe – from Dublin to Moscow and many points in between. Two cities warrant sub-market data collection – Paris (CBD and La Défense) and London (City and West End) – whilst the frequency of reportage of rents in Moscow and Athens can be sporadic, due to the requirement for a minimum of five sets of forecasts in order that data may be aggregated and analysed.
Adopting preceding end-year actual prime rents, weighted average growth rate forecasts are imputed for the three following years, together with a three yearly average. Values are reported in euros or local currency, as appropriate.
Data is collected over a period of three weeks, with results published in mid May and November each year. To qualify for inclusion, forecasts must be generated within a six-month period preceding the survey date (ordinarily some two and a half weeks prior to the publication date).
The Size and Structure of the UK Commercial Property Market Year-end Updates (annual)
Following a major review in 2013 of the original research (conducted in 2005), updated statistics are presented on an annual basis, covering the size of the UK property market by reference to capital value, floor space, rental value, rental income and yield statistics. Results are presented by sector, geography and type of investor, whilst further segmentation provides greater detail of such aspects as investment by overseas entities, as well as a consideration of non-traditional property types, including residential, hotels and healthcare. Changes in the market structure and investor holdings (UK and overseas) are analysed over time.
Residential Investment Attitudes and Intentions Survey (annual)
In 2012 the IPF undertook research to inform its response to the UK Minister for Housing and Local Government’s call for evidence of how to encourage greater investment in privately rented property. This resulted in the first UK Residential Property: Institutional Attitudes and Investment Survey. Repeated yearly since then, this research has built a valuable record of increasing interest from and commitment by institutional and large-scale real estate investors to the UK residential market.
Interviews with survey participants provide additional insights into topical issues exercising investors, including most recently such challenges as Brexit, imminent changes in capital gains tax relief for overseas investors and potential reforms to the private rented sector – for example the introduction of an inflation cap on rent rises, three-year tenancies and new consumer rights.
Should you or your organisation be interested in contributing to any of the above research, please email Chief Executive, Sue Forster at [email protected].