Investment Property Forum European Consensus Forecasts (November 2017) Report
- Overall sentiment appears to have improved for the current year, as two-thirds of average market forecasts rose as compared to the forecasts returned for the May survey;
- The average growth rate across 29 markets (Athens having failed to attract the minimum of five sets of forecasts in order to be reported) currently lies at 2.7% although individual averages range between 8.6% for Stockholm and -5.9% for London’s West End;
- Despite the Brexit-effect, City of London office rents are now projected to fall by 3.1% over the year, compared to -3.8% in May, although anticipated to worsen next year (to -3.9%), whereas the rate of decline of West End rents may decrease to -3.6% in 2018;
- In 2018 and 2019, rates are expected to decline year-on-year in over two-thirds of the 29 locations reported (23 markets are expected to be weaker than their May forecast in 2018 and 21 in 2019).
- Over three and five years, the central London markets are expected to average sub-zero growth, although 2018 may mark the start of a slow revival in West End rents, with growth rates turning positive the following year, whereas the City market may lag behind (the current average forecast for 2019 being -0.8%).