Disagreement and Uncertainty in UK Property Market Forecasts (January 2006)
A report from the IPF/IPFET Joint Research Programme. The research uses IPF Consensus Forecasts to explore forecast variability and arising patterns and information variation found in differing forecasts. Accuracy, uncertainty and bias are examined in conjunction with forecast disagreement and forecast sub-group comparison. Analysis shows a significant level of agreement in forecasting. However, significant uncertainty in Consensus Forecasts indicates that uncertainty is driven by common factors.