Current Activities & Pipeline

Forthcoming Publications

Residential Attitudes and Investment Survey (annual)
Established in 2012 and conducted annually thereafter, this research provides data on large-scale and institutional investment in residential property in the UK and gives an indication of the appetite for further exposure to the sector, as well as barriers to potential investors.

The results of the 2018 survey will be presented at a seminar on Wednesday 5 December and the report should be available shortly thereafter.

In Progress

Long-term Valuation Methodologies for Real Estate Lending
The University of Cambridge has been commissioned to undertake a more detailed analysis and independent testing of methodologies that emerged from earlier work by the Long-term Value Working Group of the Property Industry Alliance Debt Group to help identify periods when the probability and scale of potential falls in property value are high.

In partnership with the University of Reading, the research team will expand the analysis of two main long-term valuation methods (Investment Value and Adjusted Market Value), review alternative inputs and test the efficiency of the models. They will also explore how these methodologies might work at different levels of granularity, from total market to segment and sub-segment level, in order to test the extent to which a general approach can deal with varying circumstances.

The research findings are due to be published in Q2 2019.

Recently commissioned

Influence of Retail Structural Change on Sector Allocations in Real Estate Investment
Much has been written about the current state of bricks and mortar retail, in particular focussing on the health of the high street and shopping centres in light of the impact of e-commerce on consumer purchases of goods and services. However, there has been less discussion of the influence of omni-channel retailing and the potential consequences this may have on allocations to the retail sector from an investment perspective.

The University of the West of England has been commissioned to undertake a study to consider the fundamental question of what influence to date the many changes in retailing have had on allocations to the sector within major, institutional/ non-specialist real estate investment portfolios, and what may replace retail, should long-term allocations to this sector decline. The investigation will extend beyond the UK, to consider the current impact in a number of locations, including the US, Australia, Germany, France, Spain and South Korea.

The report is due for publication in Q1 2019.

Size and Structure of the UK Commercial Property Market 2018

The IPF first published research into the size and structure of the UK property market in 2005, which established methods of estimation and compilation of data to provide breakdowns by property type, location and investor type, as well as a comparison of real estate investment with the size of the overall UK stock of commercial property and other investment markets. This research was subsequently updated and expanded in 2013-14, providing more detailed analysis, including changes in market structure and investor holdings (both UK and overseas). Annual updates have followed in subsequent years.

Cass Business School, in association with Intrinsic Value Real Estate Advisers, has been commissioned to undertake a thorough review of methodologies and to explore new data sources that have emerged over the 13 years since the original study.

The end-2017 update is due to be published in December. This will be followed by a report of the review of methodologies and data sources in late spring 2019, alongside the end-2018 market analysis.

Occupational Drivers of Investment Performance in Real Estate Sectors
Due to real estate’s heterogeneity and complexity, investment performance varies between different types of property asset, which may be more apparent in niche sectors of the market (such as student housing, PRS, hotels, care homes, etc.). However, macro and micro influences, ranging from regulation, economic expansion/contraction and social change to technological advances, also affect emerging sectors as well as traditional real estate.

Scoptima, a supply chain consultancy, and Real Estate Strategies have been appointed to collaborate in identifying the key characteristics that drive tenant demand and influence their changing requirements and the impact these may have on investment performance.

The findings of their investigation should be ready for publication in Q1 2019.

Regular In-house Reports

UK Consensus Forecasts (three-monthly)
This quarterly survey provide a consensus view of the likely annual performance of the UK commercial property markets over the next five years, as measured by rental and capital value growth and total returns across All Property and seven major sub-sectors and markets. 

Up to 30 organisations contribute data on a regular basis, drawn from the fund management, consultancy, research and equity brokerage communities.

The results of the Summer 2018 Survey were published on 7 September and the findings from the final survey of the year will be made available on 30 November.

European Consensus Forecast (six-monthly)
The half-yearly European Consensus forecast provides a consensus view of prime office rents in 28 European cities for the current and each of the next two years, as well as five-year annualised forecasts. Contributors comprise investors, consultants and researchers from across Europe.

The first report of 2018 was published on 11 May, with the next set of survey findings due on 9 November 2018.
 


Being tendered

Benchmarking Real Estate Investment Performance: The Role of ESG Factors
The increased role that environmental, social and corporate governance (ESG) factors play in influencing investment decisions raises a number of issues, particularly within the context of increased internationalisation of real estate investment funds. This is an area that has seen rapid development in recent years and, consequently, the availability and consistency of market-based benchmarks vary across countries and could affect the approach of international investors to benchmarking and lead to different measures being adopted for different markets.

An invitation to tender has been issued with a closing date of 19 November for submissions. The research brief is available here.