UK Consensus Forecast Autumn 2017 published
24 Nov 2017
The latest IPF UK Consensus Forecasts report, based on independent forecasts from 22 leading property consultants and fund and investment management houses and covering the five-year period from 2017 to 2021, has been published. Headlines from this final survey of 2017 are:
For the current year, average growth rates and total return forecasts having continued to strengthen for virtually all sectors. At the All Property level, the rental value growth average forecast has risen to 1.6%, whilst the average capital value growth rate has increased to 3.3%. The average total return prediction now stands at 8.2% for 2017, from 6.7% last quarter; income remains the fundamental performance driver, at 4.9%.
Whilst near-term confidence for the majority of sectors has continued to improve (Shopping Centres being the one exception), expectations for the four remaining years of the survey period are generally weaker than three months ago with 2018 is likely to represent the low point for all three measure.
The 2017/2021 All Property five-year annualised averages are now projected to be:
- Rental value growth: 1.1%
- Capital value growth: 0.6%
- Total return: 5.4%
The IPF Research Programme 2015-2018 is funded by a cross-section of businesses, representing key market participants. The IPF gratefully acknowledges the support of these contributing organisations:
Aberdeen Asset Management, Addleshaw Goddard, Aviva Investors, AXA IM – Real Assets, Barings, CBRE Global Investors, CoStar Group, Deutsche Asset Management, Europa Capital, GIC, Grosvenor, JLL, Kames Capital, LaSalle Investment Management, Legal & General Investment Management, M&G Real Estate, MSCI, Picton, Standard Life Investments, Strutt & Parker, TH Real Estate and Wells Fargo.